Iranian Nuclear Enrichment Initiatives
The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has chosen to pursue nuclear enrichment technology ostensibly for the purpose of achieving civilian nuclear power production capability. International concerns are that such nuclear enrichment technology can then be refined to achieve the enrichment levels required for weapons grade nuclear material. Such an option in the hands of a terrorist sponsoring state is unacceptable to the responsible members of the world community. In addition, the potential is high that this can and would escalate into a regional nuclear arms race with significant international consequences.
Consequences of Exercising the Military Intervention Option
There are few options available to the international community to motivate Iran to abandon this effort and most have thus far been rebuffed. Clearly one option that has only been mentioned indirectly by governmental representatives involves military action to destroy or significantly impede the techno-industrial development needed for enrichment to take place. This military action could be either surgical or comprehensive. Either action has far-reaching regional and global geo-political and socio-economic consequences that would reverberate for generations.
Explosively Suspended Radioactive Particulate Matter
Military strikes against known nuclear enrichment industrial facilities would undoubtedly require the use of substantial explosive assets. The considerable explosive event that would be necessary to accomplish the strategic mission with a high level of confidence would probably result in the ejection of a large amount of radioactively contaminated dust and debris along with very fine particles. The fine particles will become air suspended and found re-deposited well beyond the immediate vicinity of the blast zone and will generally spread with the speed and direction of the wind. This air dispersed fine nuclear particulate material could create a substantial global plume that would actually dwarf the radioactive particulate matter that was suspended in the upper atmosphere as a result of the 1986 Chernobyl event. As the plume spreads over a larger area, the radioactivity would, of course, become less concentrated. Nevertheless, this air suspended radioactive particulate matter would re-deposit globally for decades, irrespective of international borders.
Pathways to Environmentally Transport Enriched Uranium
The destruction of a nuclear enrichment facility would create several avenues of environmental contaminant transport of the enriched uranium. Uranium hexafluoride (UF6) is one interim component of the enrichment cycle. While UF6 itself is not inherently flammable, if a container were present in a fire it could explode by virtue of the internal stresses built up in the container and spread its contents over a wide area.
The prime hazard following a UF6 release arises from the reaction between UF6 and the moisture which is normally present in the atmosphere producing two toxic substances - hydrofluoric acid (HF) and uranyl fluoride (UO2F2). With gaseous UF6, this reaction proceeds rapidly, liberating some heat, and is accompanied by a substantial volume increase at atmospheric pressure. Both UO2F2 and HF are toxic. Deposition of UO2F2 from the cloud formed following an explosive release would result in the contamination of agricultural crops and grassland and thus enter the food chain. The rate at which deposition will occur and hence the developed contamination contours will be very dependent on atmospheric conditions at the time of release.
Human Health Risks of Exposure to Dispersed Enriched Uranium
Explosive events and battlefield conditions would necessarily result in uncontrolled and unmonitored exposures to suspended enriched uranium particulate and other unknown chemical toxins by military personnel on both sides of the conflict and the surrounding general populace. This collateral damage could be potentially far-reaching and cause detrimental health affects for many years.
One concern of radioactive particulate exposure is an elevated risk of developing cancer later in life. Distant exposures at the radiation doses expected from the catastrophic destruction of an enriched uranium facility would be primarily though inhalation and ingestion, and would potentially increase the risk of cancer over naturally occurring rates. Ingestion could occur in large sections of the population if their drinking-water or food became contaminated with enriched uranium particulate matter. The direct ingestion of soil by children is also considered an important pathway.
Enriched uranium has the potential for both a chemical and radiological toxicity, with the two important target organs being the kidneys and the lungs. Health consequences are determined by the physical and chemical nature of the uranium to which an individual is exposed, and by the level and duration of exposure. Long-term studies of workers exposed to uranium have reported impairment of kidney function, depending upon the level of exposure. Insoluble inhaled uranium particles tend to be retained in the lungs and can lead to irradiation damage of the lung and even lung cancer if their presence results in a high enough radiation dose over a prolonged period.
Because lung cancer is the dominant enriched uranium radiological risk, military estimates for veterans and civilians who would inhale battlefield uranium dusts is that it would result in an increase of risk of radiation-induced lung cancers when compared to the U.S. national average. Observations from animal testing and military veteran monitoring also suggest that neurotoxic and other health effects may also result from the chemical toxicity of exposure to enriched uranium. Further, birth defects, resulting from mutations in cells that are passed to offspring, are also attributed to radiation exposure.
In addition, health care services in Iran are generally less sophisticated and would probably be quickly overwhelmed when trying to deal with both the acute and chronic health affects of this potentially disastrous public health event.
Weaknesses in U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy
U.S. foreign policy needs to carefully differentiate between the irrational and self-destructive policies and practices of the Iranian regime from the people of Iran themselves who are historically and culturally a peace-loving people. The January 2007 Iranian election results which indicated over 70% dissatisfaction with current policies, the domestic affect of international isolation, and the recent marginalization of the Iranian leadership by some of the more powerful forces in Iran would indicate that the time may be ripe for regime change and a new direction in Iran. The U.S. efforts in this regard should be to support those who are calling for such a change, from within Iran itself.
Also, while the issues associated with U.S. interaction with Iran are complex and driven by many socio-economic factors, clearly the U.S. reaction to the recent public relations “baiting” by the Iranian governmental representatives has been slow to non-responsive. There are many who believe that Iran is winning this international public relations battle and certainly trying to use it as a way to embolden and direct the attention of their own populace. U.S. diplomatic efforts in this regard need to become more nimble and proactive instead of defensive and reactive. One way is to clearly articulate to the U.S. people and the international community what the U.S. conditions would be to restoring normal diplomatic relations with the people of Iran. This message is often confused by the Iranian crisis du jour and as a result, the U.S. foreign policy with regard to Iran appears to always be shifting and evolving and is often difficult for the American people to fully understand and thereby support.
Conclusion
Because of both the geo-political consequences and the potential health issues involved with exercising the direct military intervention option, this concept needs to be removed from the diplomatic rhetoric with regard to Iran. Certainly, regime change needs to occur and diplomatic pressure needs to continue to be exerted upon the Iranian government to abandon their efforts at nuclear enrichment, but the direct consequences of military involvement, however surgical it may attempt to be, are too significant to the people of Iran, and ultimately to the entire international community, to be merely disregarded.